Tourism Demand Forecasting - Judgment Aided Models
Methodology  -  Lake State Examples - Other Examples         
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Faulkner, B. and P. Valerio. 1995. "An integrative approach to tourism demand forecasting." Tourism Management 16(1):29-37.

This paper situates tourism forecasting within the context of the tourism management activities it is supposed to serve. Too often, tourism forecasting and the building of econometric models have become an end in itself. Instead, techniques that rely on both quantitative analysis and expert involvement are touted as more useful as they integrate forecasting into the strategic planning exercise. This allows decision makers to understand the forecasting process and may lead to decision-making which more reflective of the tourism forecasts. Likewise, while citing chaos theory the authors suggest that expert opinion can make very valuable contributions to the forecasting exercise. The process that the Australian Tourist Commission goes through to set tourism targets, which are essentially forecasts, is cited as an example of a valuable integrated approach.

Uysal, M. and J. L. Crompton. 1985. "An Overview of Approaches Used to Forecast Tourism Demand." Journal of Travel Research 23(Spring):7-15.

This paper presents a brief review of the tourism forecasting literature as of 1985. Three qualitative techniques are examined: simple survey techniques, Delphi models and judegement-aided models. Three quantitative techniques are also reviewed: Time-series, gravity and trip generation models and multivariate regression models.

Archer, B. H. 1980. "Forecasting Demand, Quantitative and Intuitive Techniques." International Journal of Tourism Management 1(1):5-12.

This paper reviews the art of demand forecasting in tourism as of 1980. Time-series analysis, the causal methods of multivariate regression and gravity and trip generation models, and the qualitative techniques of surveys, expert group processes and Delphi modeling are all discussed. The author concludes that integrated techniques, which combine quantitative methods with expert judgment may be the most accurate.

Lake States Examples:

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